By Posu Joseph
As at the time this article was pencilled , the total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria stood at 4,151.
Of this total, 745 were discharged representing just 18 % while 128 deaths were recorded accounting for 3%.
Lagos State, the epicenter of the disease in Nigeria, accounted for 1764 of the total cases registered, representing 42 %. This is massive given that Lagos State is just a state in the whole of the 36 states of the Federation, including the Capital Territory, Abuja.
By the end of year 2019, no one, in his or her wildest contemplation, imagination and clairvoyance, could have ever predicted that by the first quarter of 2020, the world would have been enveloped by a global pandemic. It is a novel virus that seems to have changed the world order. It's a terrible situation.
It was reported that in United States of America, by March 8, 22 deaths were recorded. Going forward, by April 8, 17,600 deaths were recorded. This means that within a month, there was an increase of 79,900 % in death report. If this is a shock to you, then hear this. As at when this report was written, the death rate in US stood at 78,600 and by implication, it means that within just two months, the percentage increase in death rate in US was 357,172 %. This astronomical surge is an affront to our common humanity. Nothing could be more bizarre !
One ugly thing about the virus is that it is extremely contagious, making it the most contagious disease of the Century. This won't be the first time the world would experience such. In 1343, October precisely, Death Plague hit the world and claimed millions of souls. It occured in Italy but the virus was traceable to China. In 1918 as well, Spanish Flu shook the world, claiming millions of lives.
In each case, attention was paid to survival than anything. Mosques, churches, businesses were closed down. People self-isolated and those who couldn't, were quarantined.
The same is what the world is experiencing now. To curtail the spread of the virus in Nigeria, the authorities declared a lockdown in the address made by President Buhari on the 29th of March for two weeks at the first instance and further extended it. This was for the concerned states - Lagos, Ogun and Abuja.
This brought untold hardship to the people as the authorities couldn't provide enough pallatives to cushion the effects of the lockdown.
Lagos State, the epicenter of the disease and the commercial nerve of the country, became desolate, destitute and the economy became atrophic.
The Nigerian economy is largely characterized by informal sector with many depending on daily earnings for survival and since the authorities couldn't make palliatives available, they preferred to die of the virus than of hunger.
The whole situation presented a dilemma. The age-long puzzle of " Chicken and Eggs " reared its ugly head here. Whichone should be considered now : Opening the economy but face the risk of the spread or total lockdown but watch the economy become more atrophic ?
This inverse relationship between the economy and the survival brought a tough position to the authorities. Afraid of uprising, the government decided to ease the lockdown gradually by opening up the economy a bit but using persuasive means to implore the people to comply with the related instructions that would curtail the spread.
The proponents of economy opening - up argued that the virus should be managed the way other viral infections have been managed as it has come to stay. To them, Lassa, Chicken - Pox, Measles, Cholera etc all threatened humanity at their time but they are with us now and being managed. However, these people have not taken into consideration two things : the rate of contagiousness of the COVID-19 disease and its novel nature. The evolution and the pathology of the disease are still under findings and that makes the whole scenario difficult and bleak.
Now, opening the economy is not the problem. However, the most important aspect of any economy is the human capital. A sick people can definitely not run an economy. That's why labour is the most important factor of production because it has to do with the physical and mental contributions needed to manage the other factors of production. When labour is sick, the whole economy would be shut down.
Opportunity cost of taking a firm decision here is so required. Opportunity cost is an economic term. It is similar to saying for any decision taken, you must have forgo other decision or decisions given the limited resources. For example, suppose you had just a cake. It's either you eat the cake or you have it. You can't simply do the two. If you eat the cake, you would sacrifice having it. Reversely, if you want to have the case, then you must sacrifice it with being hungry. It's now left to you to take a decision given what you desire most.
What do we desire at this time ? Is it to stay alive or not ? To stay alive, open
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